Project targets

The aim of the interdisciplinary research project GERUKA is to evaluate the potential of Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan (RUK) in terms of grain production and grain export. It aims to develop strategies and to design policy measures to mobilize the RUK’s unused potential to increase grain production and grain export.

On the one hand, the project includes an assessment of the abandoned land which can be re-cultivated at low costs. Thereby, the effects of technical progress on grain productivity are considered. On the other hand, the integration of grain markets of the RUK countries in the world market and thus the importance for global food security is to be investigated. This incorporates analyzing the trade relationships between the RUK countries and their primary trade partners in the Middle East. Besides, the institutional and infrastructural barriers to grain trade, such as transport and storage capacities, and corruption, are investigated. Also, the project addresses the importance of market power and the effects of political market interventions, particularly export restrictions, on domestic markets. Based on these results, approaches to increase grain production and grain export potential in the RUK countries are developed.

Quantitative econometric analyses in the context of e.g. simulation, productivity, price transmission, pricing to market and trade models, are complemented by two kinds of qualitative interviews, which are conducted in each of the RUK countries. One survey focuses on farmers and the determinants of restoring former abandoned land. The other interviews, focusing on the barriers of grain trade, are to be conducted with main actors in the upper part of the grain supply chain, i.e. traders, transporters, warehouse keepers and exporters. This information is used to specify and parameterize the econometric models, and also to develop strategies for mobilizing the grain production and export potential. This project requires comprehensive data which is accessed through our cooperation partners in the RUK countries, acquired from national statistical and agricultural offices, as well as private statistical services.